Collision risk analysis of chittagong port in Bangladesh by using collision frequency calculation models with modified BBN model

Mohammad Ehsan Khaled, Yasumi Kawamura

Abstract

An updated accident database with 789 overall waterway accidents from 1981-2013 at Chittagong Port (CP) in Bangladesh shows around 48% accidents were collision. In this paper, collision risk in CP is analyzed by constructing collision frequency calculation models that are solved using IWRAP Mk2, software for maritime risk assessment modelling. Causation Probability is evaluated by a localized Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) model on HUGIN Researcher software and used as a direct input of IWRAP Mk2. Suggestion about modification of BBN model's output is given based on sensitivity analysis followed by an assessment of influence of a newly installed Risk Control Option (RCO) i.e., Vessel Traffic and Management Information System (VTMIS) on probability of collision. The validity of the developed model is shown by comparing between predicted collision probability and historical data. Close proximity between the database data and obtained value has been found regarding collision frequency, vessel types in collision accident, accident prone zones etc. that can be used as a reference for future decision making on safety standard upgrade of CP. Such analysis can be carried out on different ports and channels worldwide to calculate collision risk and ensure safety.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationProceedings of the International Offshore and Polar Engineering Conference
PublisherInternational Society of Offshore and Polar Engineers
Pages829-836
Number of pages8
Volume2015-January
ISBN (Print)9781880653890
StatePublished - 2015
Event25th International Ocean and Polar Engineering Conference, ISOPE 2015 - Kona, Big Island, United States

Other

Other25th International Ocean and Polar Engineering Conference, ISOPE 2015
CountryUnited States
CityKona, Big Island
Period15/6/2115/6/26

Fingerprint

Accidents
Bayesian networks
Management information systems
Risk analysis
Risk assessment
Sensitivity analysis
Decision making

Keywords

  • Bayesian Belief Network
  • Collision
  • IWRAP Mk2
  • Risk analysis
  • Risk Control Option
  • VTMIS

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Energy Engineering and Power Technology
  • Mechanical Engineering
  • Ocean Engineering

Cite this

Khaled, M. E., & Kawamura, Y. (2015). Collision risk analysis of chittagong port in Bangladesh by using collision frequency calculation models with modified BBN model. In Proceedings of the International Offshore and Polar Engineering Conference. (Vol. 2015-January, pp. 829-836). International Society of Offshore and Polar Engineers.

Collision risk analysis of chittagong port in Bangladesh by using collision frequency calculation models with modified BBN model. / Khaled, Mohammad Ehsan; Kawamura, Yasumi.

Proceedings of the International Offshore and Polar Engineering Conference. Vol. 2015-January International Society of Offshore and Polar Engineers, 2015. p. 829-836.

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution

Khaled, ME & Kawamura, Y 2015, Collision risk analysis of chittagong port in Bangladesh by using collision frequency calculation models with modified BBN model. in Proceedings of the International Offshore and Polar Engineering Conference. vol. 2015-January, International Society of Offshore and Polar Engineers, pp. 829-836, 25th International Ocean and Polar Engineering Conference, ISOPE 2015, Kona, Big Island, United States, 21-26 June.
Khaled ME, Kawamura Y. Collision risk analysis of chittagong port in Bangladesh by using collision frequency calculation models with modified BBN model. In Proceedings of the International Offshore and Polar Engineering Conference. Vol. 2015-January. International Society of Offshore and Polar Engineers. 2015. p. 829-836.

Khaled, Mohammad Ehsan; Kawamura, Yasumi / Collision risk analysis of chittagong port in Bangladesh by using collision frequency calculation models with modified BBN model.

Proceedings of the International Offshore and Polar Engineering Conference. Vol. 2015-January International Society of Offshore and Polar Engineers, 2015. p. 829-836.

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution

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