Approaches to multistage one-shot decision making

Peijun Guo, Yonggang Li

    • 2 Citations

    Abstract

    In this research, multistage one-shot decision making under uncertainty is studied. In such a decision problem, a decision maker has one and only one chance to make a decision at each stage with possibilistic information. Based on the one-shot decision theory, approaches to multistage one-shot decision making are proposed. In the proposed approach, a decision maker chooses one state amongst all the states according to his/her attitude about satisfaction and possibility at each stage. The payoff at each stage is associated with the focus points at the succeeding stages. Based on the selected states (focus points), the sequence of optimal decisions is determined by dynamic programming. The proposed method is a fundamental alternative for multistage decision making under uncertainty because it is scenario-based instead of lottery-based as in the other existing methods. The one-shot optimal stopping problem is analyzed where a decision maker has only one chance to determine stopping or continuing at each stage. The theoretical results have been obtained. © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

    Original languageEnglish
    Pages (from-to)612-623
    Number of pages12
    JournalEuropean Journal of Operational Research
    Volume236
    Issue number2
    DOIs
    StatePublished - 2014 Jul 16

    Fingerprint

    Decision making
    Decision theory
    Dynamic programming

    Keywords

    • Dynamic programming
    • Focus point
    • Multistage decision making
    • One-shot decision theory
    • Optimal stopping problem
    • Scenario-based decision theory

    ASJC Scopus subject areas

    • Management Science and Operations Research
    • Modelling and Simulation
    • Information Systems and Management

    Cite this

    Approaches to multistage one-shot decision making. / Guo, Peijun; Li, Yonggang.

    In: European Journal of Operational Research, Vol. 236, No. 2, 16.07.2014, p. 612-623.

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

    Guo, Peijun; Li, Yonggang / Approaches to multistage one-shot decision making.

    In: European Journal of Operational Research, Vol. 236, No. 2, 16.07.2014, p. 612-623.

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

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